The story behind Portsmouth’s dwindling goal threat in promotion fight with Derby County, Ipswich Town, Bolton Wanderers, Plymouth Argyle, Sheffield Wednesday & Co

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Anyone watching Pompey in recent weeks could tell you about the drop-off in performances.

That was once again evident in significant periods of last Saturday’s 1-1 draw at struggling Morecambe.

The finger has been pointed in various directions for the decisive issues in a run which now stretches to a single league success in eight.

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Injuries, central midfield absences and a loss of form in wide areas have all been forwarded as contributory factors in the malaise, with all having credence.

Meanwhile, defensive solidity has been heralded as a cause for optimism, but conceding goals of the nature of the effort shipped at the Mazuma Stadium will be sure to have the Blues looking down the table and not up it.

What is clear, however, and backed in stark nature by the statistics, are Pompey are experiencing a sharp downturn in their attacking output.

Danny Cowley’s men have now failed to score more than one goal in their past six League One fixtures, with the 3-2 loss at Ipswich at the start of October the last occasion to do so.

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Boiling down on the statistics, suggests a significant in their ability to conjure moments of goal threat.

Pompey have seen a decline in their goal threat. Picture: Jason Brown/ProSportsImagesPompey have seen a decline in their goal threat. Picture: Jason Brown/ProSportsImages
Pompey have seen a decline in their goal threat. Picture: Jason Brown/ProSportsImages

Using expected goals (xG), the metric which judges the quality of a chance, as a yardstick, the figures make for concerning reading.

Pompey’s first 10 league games this season produced an average xG of 1.83, from a low of 0.8 against Burton to a high of 4.74 against Bristol Rovers.

Over the past six league games, however, that average has dropped to an average of just 1.01, from a low of 0.69 against Charlton to 1.68 high against Oxford.

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Furthermore, Pompey have scored just five goals in that time.

That means the Blues are underperforming against their xG, which suggests those gaining chances aren’t making the most of them.

Conversely, across the first 10 League One games, Pompey bagged 21 finishes. That outperformed their xG of 18.38 - which points towards a more clinical conversion of chances.

What the figures amount to is not only are Cowley’s side markedly failing to create the openings they did earlier in the season, they are falling short of taking the ones they do - a cocktail for the kind of run of league results they currently find themselves on.

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